Baby Boomers go Bust

America's current account deficit has reached inexplicably high levels (6.4% of GDP for the first quarter of 2005) and has brazenly defied the predictions of economists who claim that a dramatic correction is necessary and inevitable. Despite the economic curiosity of this long-term economic imbalance, the most unusual element in the mix is demographic: the Baby Boomers are nearing retirement, so why the hell are they still spending and not saving? America's household saving rate has always been paltry, but the miracle baby boomer generation still has to eat in retirement, right? Apparently they are not as concerned about having financial security in their old age as one might think.

One possible explanation for the everlasting baby boomer spending spree is the insecurity associated with global financial markets. There is a sickness in the world, and it is the inability of developing countries to convince OECD investors that it's OK to give them money, 1998 won't happen again (we promise). The converse is true; capital owners in third world nations are certain that their money is better off in America, despite ridiculously low interest rates and ample opportunity for investment in the home market. This, or course, pushes interest rates down ever lower, until the old-fashioned putting money in the bank is no longer a viable option for investment savvy 50 year-olds.

The solution? Serious fiscal reform that will convince investors that emerging markets are once again fair game. The South African government's sacking of Jacob Zuma was a step in the right direction sending the clear message that corruption will be dealt with and not simply ignored or systematized. On the other hand, Iran's election over the weekend of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as President, a fundamentalist and conservative who will no doubt support the nationalization policies of the current government, will do little to encourage foreign capital flows into the country. It probably won't help that he incessantly derides America (you know, the country with all the money) as "The Great Satan".

Sixth Sense?

I was just contacted this morning about a theft from the Men's Locker Room at the Nexen Gym on the evening of June 16th. Someone in security wrote me the following:

Hi Shane. We've received a report of a theft from the men's change room between
6:00pm and 6:30pm on Thursday, June 16th. I'm doing some rotuine checking with
the staff that accessed the exercise area around the time of the theft -
in the event they saw anything suspicious. A check of the card readers indicated
you entered the exercise room at 5:40pm. Can you advise the following:
What
time did you leave the change room? Were there any males in the change room or
exercise area when you left? Did you see anything suspicious?
Thanks for
your time - appreciate it!
Perry

Bizarrely enough, I recalled this evening clearly and immediately. I wrote him back the following:

Hi Perry,

Actually, I think I clearly recall the evening you are
talking about. I had come in late to work out after work, and there were very
few people in the exercise room – just one man and one woman I believe. When I
went into the changing room, there was another man in there. As I was changing
to go running, I remember feeling odd about the way he was behaving…he had his
shirt off, but did not seem to be getting ready to work out or to shower. I felt
suspicious enough to not leave my bag in an open locker as I usually do – I
actually took it with me into the exercise room and kept it beside my treadmill.
Apparently this was a good decision!
If I entered at 5:40, I would have
left the changing room by approximately 5:50, and then would have left the gym
altogether by around 6:30. I did not go back into the change room after my
workout.
Let me know if you have any more
questions.
Regards,
Shane

The impulse to take my backpack into the workout room with me was entirely instinctual and based solely on a gut feeling I had in the presence of that man. Either I was subconsciously identifying elements in his behavior that marked him as a criminal, or my mind was picking up something outside of normal sensory perception.

The long, long wait

After talking to Reid last night about what on Earth could possibly be taking the World Bank so long to make their hiring decision, I resolved to call them today. 3 phone calls over the course of the day were attempted, with 3 answering machine responses. I didn't leave any messages. The amount of courage and will the simple act of telephoning them required was unbelievable...I was left shaking and physically depleted afterwards, despite having spoken to no one nor having heard any news that changed my increasingly frustrated outlook.

Frustration is an understatement. It is becoming the only thing I think about. I am no longer biting my nails, but relentlessly chewing my fingers off in anxiety. I have even started working seriously in order to distract myself from the constant stream of questions flowing through my head.

I'll call them again tomorrow.

Effective Economics Expression

The Economist has a succinct and attractive guide on the style of the journal and the approach that its journalists are meant to adopt when writing articles. This is not only a useful guide for the columnists and reporters employed by the magazine (then why make it public?) but can also help aspiring journalists and economics writers to perfect their own styles. Personally, I am a fan of The Economist's prose, and therefore appreciate their generosity in providing this reference.

But this still does not settle the issue of motive; why provide this guide to the public? I suspect their reasons may be two-fold. Firstly, if readers have an enhanced understanding of the approach taken to every article by the journalists writing them, they will probably be able to better understand the article in the sense that the writer intended, thus enhancing the communicative power of the magazine. Secondly, respondents to the magazine's articles will be able to more closely emulate the style of the original if given such information, which improves continuity between the original articles and readers' responses, thus improving the capacity of the The Economist to serve as a public forum for discussion and debate.

Corporate Dictionary

I recently had an idea for a new blog/website, and hopefully some day I'll work up the will to actually produce something for it. I think a website defining the true meanings (true in a sarcastic, tongue-in-cheek way) could be quite amusing, and if anything could help office rats like myself to wile away the time in a somewhat amusing manner. I recently created the blogger website for it, but have not put anything there, so no link (yet).

McGill Rejection

Not exactly the thrilling climax to all those months of waiting that I was expecting. More of a brutal let-down, which is making me increasingly angrier and frustrated as the truth of it seeps in. The most unfortunate part is the emotional and mental investment I had gambled on getting an acceptance...I was checking that bloody Minerva system almost every day for the last few months, and my heart beat would accelerate every time the page loaded to display the message "Ready For Review". I had become so habitualized to the perpetual waiting room that it was quite a shock just to see the "Refused" message on the screen, let alone to fully comprehend the reality behind the pixels.

Ah well. 0 for 2, maybe third time lucky? You never know, although I really have no idea why it is taking the IFC this long to get back to me with an offer or a refusal. I don't believe I have any alternatives other than to continue madly applying for jobs, in the hope that someone, somewhere, will pluck my resume-in-a-bottle from the surface of the electronic Sea, and read it. Then maybe they can send emergency help to a poor, unemployed, starving student.

Well, in truth, I am not that hungry.

Cannibalism in the Heart of Darkness

Africa was once labeled the 'Dark Continent' because of the mysteries it held for 19th century European society, and because of colonial ignorance. If Africa did not merit such a title in that epoch, it seems as though it has earned it ten-fold in recent times.

In a land that suffers unceasingly from the brutal suppression of dictatorial governments and the bloodshed of internecine tribal conflict, there are yet darker phenomena. Recently, in the DR Congo, trustworthy reports from multiple sources have accused certain groups, most particularly northern militias, of feasting on human flesh in the war-zone.

It is one thing to suggest that cannibalism has been reincarnated on a distant continent, but another to comprehend the atrocities to which innocent and vulnerable Africans are being subjected. The story of Zainabo Alfani says more than I ever could, and invokes irrepressible revulsion for those responsible for her suffering. Read it.

I know; how could anything human be responsible for that?

The frightening thing is, and we must accept this, that the cannibals in DR Congo are human, and hence what they are capable of, we are as well. This is a disturbing realization, but one that is supported by the existence of ritual and cultural cannibalism in numerous societies throughout history and around the globe. When living in Indonesia, I had the fortune to visit the Batak people of central Sumatra, who had only abandoned their cannibalistic practices at the turn of the century. Similarly, my father regaled me with frightening stories of modern-day cannibals in Irian Jaya who, or so say anthropologists, are probably still around.

Consequently, cannibalism appears not to be a cultural anomaly we can dismiss ourselves from. Rather, somewhere in the dark recesses of the human psyche are the behavioral instincts that can turn a society into the Heart of Darkness. But what could the possible motivations for this behavior be?

Primarily, and this certainly seems to be the dominant reason for the behavior of militias in DR Congo, cannibalism is connected to power. Upon consuming the flesh of another, you are physically subordinating them, but also stating a clear case for the others in your tribe.

Another possible explanation is that the tribes that practice cannibalism actually follow the mantra 'you are what you eat', and therefore attempt to consume the strength, intelligence or beauty of somebody they fight against or admire.

A third possibility is that, well, they are just damn hungry. It wouldn't be the first time an individual or a micro-society had been forced into cannibalism out of desperation, and Africa clearly has no surplus of resources.

However, despite these potential explanations (or justifications, if you are comfortable calling them so), my own sense of innate morality, wherever it stems from or whatever its source, cannot accept cannibalism. It seems so entirely wrong to me that I could not imagine anyone with even remotely the same beliefs as myself engaging in that practice.

Perhaps that is why I fail to understand why the cannibals in DR Congo can justify their own actions.

Strange, twisted times

Our world has some apparent difficulties with setting apprporiate priorities. Over the last 24 hours, the internet has been overwhelmed by people seeking news on the Michael Jackson verdict. Thankfully, this story is at least no longer the most popular read on Google's news page, with more politically pressing issues finally replacing such trite.

But before you refute public stupidity altogether, enjoy the disgusting sale of Live 8 tickets on eBay. The only flaw in Geldof's comments is that they do not sufficiently chastise such a selfish and profiteering act.

Ra-ra the human race. We should all be proud.

The Power of Thought

Taking a business degree has yielded enormous benefits for me; one of the most significant of these has been the increased employability I apparently enjoy (but have yet to realize). Another, more profound benefit has been a change in the way I think. My attention is now consistently focused on the practical, applicable solutions to problems, and their tangible consequences.

This approach to problems has its pros and cons. I am happy I enrolled in a double degree with French so that at least some part of my education could maintain a level of abstract, ethereal thought. The business approach, however, has definitely dominated the last four years of my life. Dune recently reminded me of the power of thought alone; in one of the appendices, Herbert says:

Whether a thought is spoken or not it is a real thing and has powers of reality.

This can be hard to remember and appreciate when you have had four years of business school imprinted on your mind.

American caution not so evil

America has been getting a lot of flack from the international community for its reluctance to jump on board with Mr. Blair's plan for Africa. Mr. Bush is at the centre of these attacks, having already provoked international mistrust and suspicion thanks to his aggressive foreign policy. Mr. Blair is proposing a three-pronged attack on Africa's development problems:

-Write off international debt to Africa
-Hugely increase aid (perhaps double it)
-Promote fairer trade with African nations

There is no doubt that this plan could significantly alter Africa's future economic path, and improve living conditions for large segments of the poorest population on Earth. So is America just being evil in its reluctance to sign on?

The story is a little more complicated than that. Firstly, one has to recognize that the burden of instituting such a plan would fall largely on American shoulders. Humbug, you say, America has by far the largest economic capacity to support such a package! This, too, is true, but as any Spiderman-watching American could tell you, with great power comes great responsibility.

And America has recently had some stinging lessons in monetary responsibility and corporate governance. In recent years, only one other developed nation has had to suffer an Enronesque crisis like that which shook American economic might, and that was Canada who, despite good intentions, is probably just too small to have an enormous quantitative impact on foreign development aid.

So America, painfully aware of the potential damage that can arise from economic irresponsibility, is understandingly reluctant to give buckets of aid to Africa without first having assurances that the aid is going to be used to alleviate poverty. Assurances for America constitute, fundamentally, democracies. And this makes sense to a large degree. If there were actually political consequences for corruption among the African political elite, governments would probably be forced to use foreign aid much more effectively. But, as this week has shown, not even Africa's 'most democratic nation' can properly punish government MPs for (very) public corruption scandals.

America's worries are probably justified. The Millennium Challenge Account, which requires strict monitoring of aid disbursements before they are awarded, is a good solution to the problem of monitoring aid usage, and is entirely an American innovation. So from a reasoned perspective, America has a solid basis for refusing to be a part of Mr. Blair's project.

What America cannot forget, however, is that it has no excuse for ignoring global poverty altogether, and that as the most powerful nation on Earth, it is morally obliged to do something to help. A lack of aid accountability is a sorry excuse for refusing to save human life.

AAA - America, Africa and Aid

The future of international development and poverty reduction lies embedded in the dynamic of this Triple Entente. Only positive, constructive and progressive relations between all vertices of this not-really-love triangle can assure that any of the international community's aid objectives will be met for the near future.

America has the money. This economic behemoth remains the irrefutable Gargantua of wealth and economic success in the post-modern world. The runner-up industrialized economy (Japan) is only a quarter of the size, and is only there because of American help in the first place. Despite some moderately developed economies taking impressive steps forward, they are not making the leaps that would be required for them to play in the same league as America within the next decade. If developing nations want to be the recipients of significant amounts of aid, they are going to have to dip their hands into America's coffers, with America's permission, of course.

Africa doesn't have the money. While most of Asia (most notably for China and India) hardly resembles the impoverished and hopeless continent of post WWII colonialism, and the Middle East and much of South America continue to joyfully surf the black waves of surging petroleum prices, Africa holds tenaciously onto its "Dark Continent" identity. It truthfully deserves the name: Sub-Saharan Africa is the only part of the world in which the proportion of the population living in absolute poverty is on the rise, and Africans also enjoy the aftermath of guerilla wars, genocides, and systematic oppression. This is obviously where America's money needs to be going if it is going to make a difference.

However, as with all triangular relationships, a 'give-and-take' solution is not going to work in this case. Firstly, despite African enthusiasm for having ever larger amounts of money funneled into the dark continent, the black hole is a strikingly effective analogy for the effectiveness of this tactic. Corruption, misplacement of funds and inbred conflict usually mean that any aid awarded Africa usually only accomplishes a fraction of its potential contribution, or disappears altogether. Moreover, America is not biting - it has, at least until the end of Mr. Bush's term, an unshakeable policy of promoting democracy everywhere, but particularly in the Middle East. If Africa is hurt by the attention that the Giant is paying to Iraq, their relationship suffers even more when America explores the possibility of democracy in Africa and realizes that it is probably impossible (at least on American terms.) America's approach in this regard is unlikely to change - Mr. Wolfowtiz's assurances that he really is going to focus on Africa and that he is not another pawn in hawkish Bush foreign policy are convincing few, World Bank stakeholders themselves included.

Can this Triple Entente be resurrected to help defeat the Evil Axis of poverty, disease and death? Not, at least, in the immediate future. The war will not be over by Christmas.

The Ascendancy of Blogs

The BBC now has a weekly report on the blogosphere; does this not strike anyone as a bizarre reversal of the news paradigm?

Intel the Chip God

Wow. If Apple really do adopt Intel chips over the IBM ones they are currently using for G5 technology, then how does Intel not have a complete and undefeatable monopoly over the PC processor market?

If you want power and quality in your non-mac PC, Intel chips are virtually the only option. Athlon put up a good fight, for a while, but have recently simply fallen behind...Intel are just too much of a chip and technology powerhouse. Apple, with their hardware-software integrative approach and 'relationship' business practices, was the only major player left who had not yet adopted the Intel standard.

If they actually go ahead with this, we could witness a 'Microsoftization' of the chip market, assuring that not only would we have to suffer under the yolk of an operating system monopoly, but under a chip monopoly as well.

How big is your wallet?

An interesting long-term consequence of this move, however, is that Apple may start to become a direct challenge to Microsoft PCs, instead of simply being a 'different sort' of computer that we use for somewhat unique types of work. Is this what Apple is thinking?

The problem with Africa

Africa needs help. Now. Shamefully, however, the majority of the developed world does not appear to recognize (or want to recognize) this need. I find it particularly worrisome that the most progress in aid for Africa is being made by the UK, only the world's fourth largest economy, while the top 3 (USA, Japan and Germany) are worse than passive: they are actually creating obstacles to the UK's relief initiatives. Shame on the EU as well for not stepping up; they should be directed toward Africa by the Franco-German alliance.

I believe that the UK's proposals under Gordon Brown would result in nothing short of an African revolution. 100% debt relief and a doubling of aid would, if instituted multilaterally, remove almost entirely the burden that has kept Africa down for the last 50 years. These measures can sound frighteningly drastic, but they are undoubtedly necessary if the world community is to have even a remote chance of satisfying the UN millennium development goals for 2015.

Africa is the problem. Therein lies the solution.

Waking Life and coffee

I watched Waking Life with Matt last night. Absolutely incredible. I am certain that it is a post-modern masterpiece, even if I didn't really understand it. To be able to fully appreciate the movie, I will a) need to watch it multiple times, b) read more philosophy.

I am starting to find my lack of a formal philosophy education increasingly frustrating. Hopefully I can remedy my ignorance in this field through personal reading, something I would like to attempt this summer (if I can finally finish Dune...) At Second Cup last night, before engaging in a philosophical rant with Matt on subjects vaguely pertaining to the movie we had just watched, I recognized the guy working behind the counter - Sean. Relevance? I mentioned to him the possibility of working at Second Cup over the summer, which would (he assured me) afford one the opportunity to read.

But I already have a job, I hear you say. This is true. However, there are several reasons for which the Second Cup job intrigues me. Firstly, I have never worked in a coffee shop before, and if I am going to do so, it's now or never. Secondly, I would remain in the job I currently have, and take the Second Cup job only as an evening gig - even though it only pays $6.50 an hour, the extra money would be nonetheless appreciated, and I would (ideally) spend most of the time reading anyway. It would also keep me away from my house, which is a hellhole right now. Thirdly, I am betting that you get free coffee out of it. That would be caffeine-o-liscious.

The end of the European dream?

I found this article from the BBC quite shocking. Why? Because it is one of the first indications I have seen of European Rejectionism becoming a grass-roots and populist movement. It is one thing for the government and political national elite to defy the demands of supranationalism and sovereignty sacrifice, but quite another for the 'man in the street' to express his discontent with the European dream, and in such large numbers.

Ironically, the attempt to litigate a European constitution, which if successful would have had very little effect on the status quo of EU politics, has prompted this backlash which may sound the death of European construction.

Wikipedia is fantastic

Wikis really are great. Here is democratic deficit as an encyclopedia entry, solidified as a concrete concept in the ether of the Web.

Democratic Deficit at the World Bank

Today Wolfowitz starts his first day on the job as President of the World Bank (that hallowed institution I am praying will hire me). I personally think it was a poor appointment and another serious error by the Bush administration, and I am cautious of the direction in which Wolfowitz will take the World Bank. However, as a recently-graduated student trying to make a dent in global poverty, I'll start where I can, and a post within that organisation, regardless of its leadership, would undoubtedly be an incredibly valuable experience.

One term that struck me from the BBC article linked above was "Democratic Deficit", something Matt addressed vis-a-vis Canadian politics. Organisations grow. (In fact, they are bizarrely organic in this respect.) And when they grow, it appears as though the democratic deficit always becomes a significant problem: bureaucrats and internal politics reduce the organisation's efficiency and, more fundamentally, its ability to carry out its initial function and to represent (democratically) its constituents and stakeholders.

Do organisations have to remain small, or is there an effective cure for the DD that accompanies maturity?

Live Aid

The original Live Aid was an awesome, beautiful, and generation-defining event. It's incredible that Geldof is going to do it again. Perhaps the most unbelievable part of this is that it needs to be done again at all - the West seems to have slumped back into its comfortable ignorance of the sufferings of people in the third world.

This is a powerful quote from Geldof himself:

Still 20 years on, it strikes me as morally repulsive and intellectually absurd that people die of want in a world of surplus.

He's right.

Let the good times roll

This post is a rant. A very angry, pessimistic, sarcastic and unpleasant rant. So don't read it. It is purely for my own therapeutic benefit.

My life sucks. Today is June 1st 2005, and I have yet to hear from McGill, or any of the jobs to which I have applied. Oh, except for that one rejection. I am sleeping on the floor of my parents' house, because they a) don't care enough about me to provide me with a bed while I am living there, and b) won't even allow me to crash at a friend's. While at home, I am surrounded by siblings who constantly bicker and quibble with me. So I try to avoid being home as much as possible. I am working in a miserable summer job in auditing, which is boring enough to make me suicidal. Sure, it makes me some money, but my father won't even allow me to spend that.

I am almost convinced that this is the lowest place I have ever been to.

There is one companion who follows me on the journey, and never abandons me. Beer. God bless you.