Tuesday, November 29, 2005

Taking a risk

I did something that feels kind of risky today. My financial situation isn't exactly the most impressive around, having just graduated etc., but one good piece of recent news is that I have paid off all my student loans. (Yay!) Then, after paying them all off, I leveraged myself again with a big (amount undisclosed) loan and put it all on a speculative stock that I have been watching for a while in the Canadian oil patch. Is this crazy? I don't know. But it feels like it. On the other hand, there is no better time to risk everything than when you are young - the potential upside is huge, and often losing everything isn't all that bad as you have so little to lose in the first place. But why not be an optimist? Let's pretend I'm going to make a fortune and never have to work another day in my life.

Monday, November 28, 2005

Canada's Shame

Bono has it right: Paul Martin has let us down (again.) Canada has had a long history of contributing to international cooperation and multilateral development efforts, and the average Canadian wants it to stay that way. Unfortunately, our hundred-millionaire prime minister isn't the average Canadian, and believes that abusing or embezzling funds is a better use of taxpayer money than contributing to development aid. There is some good news though: we have an election coming up.

However, despite the apparent success of democracy in this instance (government misbehaves, fails to reflect voter wishes; no-confidence motion forces the government to resign for a new election), the eventual outcome, sadly, is unlikely to result in significant differences from the status quo of Canadian politics. We have already learned this lesson: the Chretien government was accused of widespread abuse and mismanagement of public funds, yet the liberals were still able to lead a government after the next election, with one of Chretien's (ex) cronies in power to boot. What gives?

Unfortunately, I still believe there is no viable alternative to the liberals in Canada. I mean, Canadians ARE liberal. So even though we may have some cowboys and hippies in the West who will vote right/left of the Liberal institution, most Canadians don't want bible bashers or pseudo-communists in power. Understandably; dangerously un-Canadian non-moderate (and potentially impolite) ideologies are not even the biggest barriers to these other parties forming a government; they only represent one part of the country, and are likely to remain only regional forces for a long time.

I predict that despite the slap-in-the-face corruption that plagues Paul Martin and his liberal friends, the upcoming Christmas season election campaign will culminate in another government headed by the liberals - and headed again by Paul Martin. Unbelievable.

Saturday, November 26, 2005

GrameenPhone in the News

Great to see that this project I am working on is still getting press coverage. And rightly so, I feel. The development impact of the Village Phone Program (GrameenPhone's rural telephony expansion project) is enormous, providing not only connectivity services to people who would otherwise be unable to afford them, but also empowering women whilst providing them with a livelihood, and establishing the communications infrastructure necessary to allow other businesses (including even basic agriculure) to thrive. Why the hell did this miss the limelight at WSIS?

Wednesday, November 23, 2005

Rehashing old times

Last night I was out at Nanny's Irish pub with one of my new friends in DC. The similarities between us are mind-boggling. We are both Irish-Canadian, both grew up as expatriates, with fathers who both work in the oil and gas industry. We both went/go to university in the States, both took business undergrad, want to work in similar fields in the future, both were evacuated from crisis zones when we were younger etc...The list goes on. Everytime we meet up we find we share more and more of the same opinions, beliefs, worldviews. It's a bit Irish, as you would say.

Anyway, both of us are fond of traditional music, and Nanny's has a great session every Monday night, which we are making an effort to go to and potentially play at. On Monday however, as you do, we got a little carried away with the pints and ended up just talking for ages. And, of course, we starting reminiscing about experiences from our pasts abroad. I started telling him about Sambolo beach, the Sunda straight, and my sailing/trekking adventures in the area.

My family used to have a timeshare on Sambolo Beach, which is on the west side of Java and faces Sumatra over the waters of the Sunda Straight. In the middle of the straight is the infamous Krakatoa, which exploded in 1883 with the aftermath felt around the world. The explosion was so powerful that the Island was split into 3, and the middle completely blown away. However, the volcano is still active, and over the last ten years a new volcano (named "Anak Krakatoa" or "Son of Krakatoa") has broken the surface in between the remnants of the original island - its glowing cinder cone now constantly spews lava, and the volcano has minor eruptions a couple of times a day. When my family were at the beach, we used to sit around and play in the sand, always keeping a wary eye on the volcano, which was clearly visible on the horizon. Once we saw a plume of smoke coming from the top of it, we would run into the water with excitement, waiting for the big waves that we knew would always follow an eruption. The surfers liked it too. At night time, we would watch the glowing red of the summit as we sat around our bonfires.

I once went to Ujung Kulon National Park, reputedly the last habitat of the Javan rhinoceros, of which there are probably only 2 or 3, if any, in existence. Shortly before I went, they had recently found a footprint that everyone was excited about. Unfortunately, I never got to see a rhinoceros myself, and the footprint really wasn't all that impressive. My time in the park is another story. However, to get to the park, one has to hire these little bang-bang boats that are powered by lawnmower motors and dodgy men with oars. There are no roads. On my trip in one of these little boats, we sailed through the islands of the original Krakatoa and around the side of the new volcano, jumping out for a little dip in the lava-warmed waters. The shore was a smoking, steaming mass of cooling rock, into which new streams of lava were constantly flowing, and causing the surrounding waters of the ocean to bubble angrily once they met.

After I finished telling Rob about this, I stared into the foam at the top of my pint as I swirled it around in the glass. Did that really happen? It sounds ridiculous, even to my own ears. And I tell people stories like this all the time - every weekend was such an adventure for me when I lived in Indonesia. I mean, an island that was ripped into pieces by an enormous explosion, in the middle of which a new volcano is growing - and sailing right through the centre?

The next morning, Rob sent me this picture from Google Earth.

Monday, November 21, 2005

I am a lunatic

Who else would pay $1000 so they could put themselves through 6 months of grueling finance work and then sit an exam in June in which fewer than half of all participants pass? I guess I would - did. Although it cost me $1000 to sign up for the CFA, I'm hoping it will be a worthwhile investment. Still hurts the wallet though. Fortunately, the Bank has sibsidized me in a way - I get a free training course sponsored by the World Bank Treasury, which begins in January, and they also pay for my books. But what the hell was Wharton for?

As you may (or may not) know, the World Bank rarely hires people straight out of undergrad - even at the lowest levels almost everyone has a masters. So in many ways, I am relatively uneducated and inexperienced for the position I hold (the youngest analyst in my department aside from me is 25!) Additionally, though Wharton gives its students a fairly good grounding in finance, it just can't compare to I-banking experience, which a lot of my colleagues possess. Thus, my inferiority complex. I do believe this will help however. Additionally (although I am still not quite sure when exactly, sometime in the New Year I presume) I will be participating in a 6-week Credit Training course. I guess after that, I really better know what I'm doing around here :P

Thursday, November 17, 2005

US retains control of the internet

Great. Now that world leaders have decided on this non-issue, maybe WSIS can actually produce something useful.

Agricultural Trade Reform and Doha

One of the advantages of working at the Bank is that I get access to a crazy number of educational seminars, conferences, lectures...It could really be like university again save for the fact that I don't have the time to go to all of them because, well, I'm working. But I am going to make a concerted effort in the future to do so, and went to one during lunch today with another analyst working here - she's on the research and policy side of things, and so has a much better understanding of what is actually going on in this realm. This was actually a book launch for "Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda".

The Doha round of trade negotiations offers an unprecedented opportunity to reform global trade restrictions and liberalize the world economy. Not everyone agrees with this, particularly the World Bank's critics, but the Bank does not take stances on issues like this lightly, and supports major policy decisions in topics such as these with extensive and well-developed research. The presenters of the lecture I was at today stipulated that there is a potential US$300 billion benefit to be derived from trade reform in global agriculture. This is nothing new, and in fact is lower than previous predictions made by the Bank as over recent years some international trade barriers have, in fact, come down. What was more interesting about the hypothesis presented was that this could be accomplished with little or no investment.

In the previous (Uruguay) round of trade talks, economists formulated 3 "pillars" on which agricultural trade liberalization should be based: i) export subsidies, ii) domestic support of agriculture, and iii) import market access. Although it had been previously believed that all three were equally important to trade reform, recent research has shown that import market access is by far the most important - i.e. not taxing what's coming in. This is relatively easy to adjust, and simply requires that legislation be passed by countries agreeing to do so.

Interestingly, however, although there have already been promises of significant tariff cuts by many of the different negotiating blocs, what looks like a large cut (say, the EU's proposal of 60% or the G20 proposal of 70%), none of these really make the grade. The reason for this is that most countries are not yet abusing tariffs to the maximum limits possible, and so were tariff limitations cut by even up to these amounts, there would be little or no change in the amount actually charged on imports. Only the US proposal of a 90% tariff cut would actually have any significant effect.

One of the other interesting conclusions of this recent research is that, contrary to popular belief, developing countries would benefit disproportionately from import tariff cuts. With the full liberalization of the world economy vis-a-vis imports, it is estimated that developing countries could receive as much as US$86 billion extra in annual revenue. Even if only developing countries themselves eliminate tariffs, and developed countries keep theirs in place, it would still lead to additional annual income amounting to US$23 billion. Even more surprising is that while developing countries receive the proportionately greater part of this benefit, sub-saharan Africa is the greatest beneficiary. This demonstrates that, in fact, trade between developing countries, rather than trade between the 1st and 3rd worlds, is where the most opportunity for gain from free trade lies - at least for the Earth's poor.

One sticking point is the goods on which tariffs are liberalized. Some are sensitive for certain countries who may have a particular political agenda - "sensitive goods". Sugar is protected globally, but is only the second most important agricultural good to liberalize. The first is rice, and this is protected largely by Japan and Korea. Were only these two countries to eliminate their import tariffs on this good, it would have a resounding effect on income for the world's poorest countries.

In sum, Doha remains an exciting opportunity for improving the lot of the poor, but there are four important points to remember regarding the talks: i) the WTO controls tariff cuts, and so it is in this forum that negotiations must take place; ii) the cuts decided upon at the Doha round will need to break boundary tariffs, and not just the tariffs limitations that appear to be currently in place; iii) large gains could be lost because of stubbornness over sensitive products; iv) and developing countries stand to gain the most, assuming they are willing to participate fully. This last point, obviously, could be the largest obstacle.

Tuesday, November 15, 2005

WSIS

I realised that in my previous post I forgot to mention WSIS, the World Summit on the Information Society. This conference is being held in Tunis, and is supposed to be a forum to help technology and development institutions to use technology as a driver for economic growth in third world countries, at a grassroots level that sees even the poorest income segments of LDAs benefit directly. Of course, the Global Information and Communications Technology department, the group I work for at the Bank, is going to have an important presence and is making several presentations. Unfortunately, as this BBC article describes, the event is being overshadowed by a row between developed countries over control and policing of the Internet. For this reason, the World Bank has sent representatives on a mission more akin to observation rather than policy discussion and resolution - who would they side with? This is a shame for 2 reasons: i) this conference could have had the potential to spearhead significant development initiatives in technology, and ii) it is my opinion that attempting to control the internet is a futile exercise in any case. Anyway, what would Europe do differently to the US? Not much, considering that the EU has said nothing of its intended policy shift should it gain control. So developed countries selfishly battle over a non-issue while poor people await the benefits of the technology revolution in vain. When will we learn?

By the way, my department's website at the Bank is here. There is a link describing World Bank activities at the conference. And if you want to see something almost as cool as me getting my first business card, check this out. You might have to scroll down a bit, and my picture is a bit distorted, but I think you can recognise me :)

Bank stuff

This is a mixed-topic post, as a few interesting things have been happening, and which probably deserve to be written down, mostly work-related. I love this job. As with anything, it can be hard to remember the importance and, well, for lack of a better word, 'awesomeness' of what you do when you start focusing on the details and lose sight of the big picture. Between drafting loan terms, reviewing legal documents and calculating cash flows, I think I can forget that I am helping to give poor people in villages in Bangladesh cell phones so that they can make better lives for themselves. One of my colleagues woke me up to this yesterday when he spoke of his career at the IFC, and of how this job gave you the opportunity to do a lot more than you would anywhere else; it's part financial analyst, but also part negotiator, diplomat, lawyer, economist, and maybe even aid worker (if you're an idealist like me).

This is becoming increasingly evident as I approach a big event - I am never sure how much I can say, because so much of the information I deal with is confidential - but I am sure I can tell you that I am getting ready for a board meeting with the executive directors of the World Bank and President Wolfowitz. I am looking forward to meeting him, although unfortunately I doubt he will be available for photo opportunities. It is reputed (by Bank veterans older and wiser than I) that the Board meeting resembles a committee meeting of the UN, with representatives not only at the Bank level, but from international institutions and governments related to the project. A little intimidating, to be honest.

On Monday, I attended training on "Policy and Performance Standards", which is bureaucratese for PR. As everyone knows, the Bank is constantly in the public eye, with some NGOs specifically set up to keep tabs on us and raise an uproar when we make a mistake. Hell, there are Ethiopians protesting at the entrance of my building today, trying to pressure us and the US government into taking stronger economic action against the warlord factions in their home country. When you are trying to finance deals in complex political, environmental and social situations, and you know that the investment you are making is ultimately going to help people and improve lives, sometimes this stuff about having to determine the cultural value of a historic monument that could potentially be damaged by pollutants produced by a new factory seems a bit ridiculous and convoluted. But the public are so critical of this institution that we have little choice but to perform analysis in that regard that does, in fact, sometimes verge on the ridiculous. And that stops us from finalizing financing for projects that will help to develop third world countries.

Sunday, November 13, 2005

Over

Anglelica and I broke up. It hurts.

Thursday, November 10, 2005

Ink on paper

Writing is so visceral. Running your hand across the pages written from a loved one, or a friend, you can feel the pressure of the pen in their hands as they scribble their words in an act that immortalizes the message. From a stranger, or an enemy, there is more mystery, a greater depth of possible meaning or intent to decipher. It takes effort. I used to believe that for art to be any good, it had to require, no - demand, something from the artist. If the art wasn't worth the pain that had to go into it, then it wasn't worth anything. I think I still believe the same, though I am less sure. Is writing the same? Not writing in the creation of literature - obviously there is a connection. But what about that which is written solely for sake of communication? Or is there such a thing? Why else would Paul's epistles be read by millions of eyes unintended, or the letters of Voltaire to mistresses and comrades be published in volumes? The electronic age is a wonder and a curse. Emails are immeasurably valuable, and worthless. The ghost and the shell seem less a part of one another.

Wednesday, November 09, 2005

Life about to improve

Seriously. My apartment sucks, and that IS taking it with a dose of sugar. I thought I would be busy enough with work and adjusting to a new city (yes, stupid, I know) but that apparently is not the case. So I need a new place. Fortunately, I am only obliged to stay where I am until the end of December, which is amazingly not that far away anymore, so I have begun the search and have already turned up some promising opportunities. The best one so far has the most unbelievable location in DC and costs less than my current place...and it comes with people I can hang out with. They are pretty selective about who they will "let in", however (and so they should be), so there are mutliple rounds of making myself seem like a tolerable roomate that I will have to go through. Can he do it? Check here for future episodes of "Trapped in Hell".

That's looking forward to the future, but now I want to reminisce over good times in the past, and last weekend definitely deserves it. I left Friday night with some ex-frat bros who live in DC, and we went back to Philly for homecoming. That would have been a blast in any case, but Whan also came down from Syracuse and Reid, incredibly, flew back from Hawaii. I guess Island Fever was finally starting to get to him. Anyway, those of you who know me do not need me to fill in the blanks...the debauchery continued from the moment I got out of the car to hazy Sunday morning and my hitched ride back to Philly. Penn lost to Princeton, but no one I was with really cared. Nils' apartment is definitely in worse shape than it was when we arrived (sorry, dude) and I probably owe him and Bobys some 40s of the silver bullet. Especially if I am going to convince them to delete and burn all of the compromising photographs. Ah, it was fun. In brief moments of sobriety, however, I was also reminded of who wasn't there: Angelica most of all, Mehal, and other friends too numerous to name. I miss all of you a great deal, and look forward to seeing you down the road.

Intellectually, I have embarked on a voyage I have been waiting a long time to begin. My knowledge of philosophy has always been cursory at best, and I have been incessantly aware of the importance of expanding my understanding of the field, and in doing so taking one step closer to an ultimate understanding of life. I thought a good place to start with this would be reading Bertrand Russell's 'History of Western Philosophy', while at the same time reading a history of political philosophy in French that I used back in the day at Sciences-Po. Reading passages in English from similar periods before attempting the French could not hurt. However, I had not, until yesterday, worked up the will to take it off my bookshelf and start reading page 1. Then, I met Peiro from Zendik Arts. He was standing on the side of the street in Georgetown as I was walking home, desperately trying to attract the interest of passers-by and succeeding in scaring most of the Washington elite away. I, however (and of course) stopped. We discussed man's place in the world, the disturbing affect of modernity and post-modernity on human will (if there is such a thing) and existence of God. If you hit up that Zendik link you'll find out exactly where he was coming from. I found it enlightening and refreshing. He was trying to sell various art products for whatever price the buyer thought they were worth, and he reacted to me as though I was the first person to stop all night. He sold me a book written in what looks like a Joycean prose by the founder of the Zendik movement for half its price (or so I was led to believe) because he appreciated our conversation, and when I got home, I resolved to read it, after Russell's History.

Should be an adventure.